11 Players Projected to Score More TDs in 2026 — Our Honest Takes

Every June, Mike Clay drops his annual TD regression lists and the fantasy community collectively loses its mind — some people nod along, some people post angry takes on Reddit, and the truly obsessed (that's us) spend three days stress-testing every single name. The "more touchdowns in 2026" list is always the more interesting of the two, because it forces you to ask a simple, brutal question: is this a real structural improvement, or is it wishful thinking dressed up in projections? We've taken Clay's core premise — that 11 players are primed to find the end zone more often this season — and applied our own editorial lens. We love some of these calls. We're skeptical of others. Here's where we actually stand, player by player.

1. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals

Start here. Burrow himself said this offseason that he's optimistic the Bengals' roster moves will pay off — and that quote lands differently when you remember Cincinnati's red-zone efficiency cratered in stretches of 2024 due to receiver inconsistency. If Colbie Young (WR, CIN) or Andrei Iosivas (WR, CIN) — both of whom are generating real buzz heading into camp — emerge as legitimate red-zone threats alongside Ja'Marr Chase, Burrow's TD volume could spike in a meaningful way. We're believers here. Burrow with a deeper, healthier supporting cast is a genuinely scary fantasy QB1.

2. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers

This one is complicated, and we won't pretend otherwise. Aiyuk dropped a YouTube video this offseason blaming his former agent for the chaos surrounding his push to leave San Francisco. The situation between him and the 49ers front office remains unresolved. If he's actually on the field in 2026 — and that "if" is doing real work in that sentence — the touchdown upside is legitimate. He posted massive efficiency numbers when healthy. But a player this distracted, with this much contract drama swirling, is a TD regression candidate in both directions. We'd pump the brakes on full commitment until camp clarity arrives.

3. Emeka Egbuka, WR

Egbuka is one of Matt Bowen's six players on the move in his 2026 preseason rankings — and Bowen has him trending upward for good reason. Slot receivers who survive their rookie year and enter Year 2 with a full offseason of reps tend to spike in red-zone usage because coordinators finally trust their route-running precision. Egbuka fits that mold almost perfectly. We're high on this call. If he's not already in your dynasty queue, fix that.

4. Rookie CB Johnson, Miami Dolphins (offensive context)

Stay with us here. The Dolphins couldn't afford top free-agent corners this offseason, so they're leaning on rookie CB Johnson to anchor the defense. What does that have to do with offensive TDs? Everything. When a defense is young and unproven at corner, opposing offenses light them up — which means Miami's offense is going to be in a lot of shootouts in 2026. Tyreek Hill and whatever weapons line up beside him should see elevated TD volume simply because the Dolphins will need to score more points to win games. Caleb Douglas (WR, MIA) is generating real adds buzz right now for exactly this reason.

5. Riq Woolen, CB, Philadelphia Eagles (offensive ripple effect)

Similar logic to the Dolphins entry, but inverted. Woolen generated more buzz this spring than any other Eagles newcomer. Philadelphia just quietly upgraded one of the shakiest corner spots in the NFC. A locked-in Eagles defense means Jalen Hurts and company will be playing with leads — and teams playing with leads in the fourth quarter punch in short-yardage TDs at a significantly higher rate than teams playing from behind. Whoever the Eagles' goal-line back is in 2026 should be on your TD upside radar right now.

6. Taylen Green, QB, Cleveland Browns

Green is trending hard on Sleeper right now, and the Browns' QB situation is genuinely fascinating. Deshaun Watson is also being added in fantasy circles, but we think Green is the more interesting TD-upside play if he wins the starting job. Young running QBs who are given the keys in Cleveland have historically — sorry, in recent seasons since 2022 — been feast-or-famine fantasy assets, but their rushing TD floors are almost always underpriced at draft time. Green in a full-time role could be a QB2 with weekly QB1 upside.

7. Malik Willis, QB, Miami Dolphins

Willis is pulling adds on Sleeper and sitting at rank #109 — real rostered territory. If the Dolphins' offense leans into his athleticism the way Baltimore leaned into Lamar Jackson's rushing after his first full season as starter, Willis becomes a TD machine on the ground alone. Miami's offensive coordinator has every incentive to scheme around his legs. We think this is a live call, not a lottery ticket.

8. Seth McGowan, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Nobody is talking about McGowan loudly enough. He's sitting at rank #999 on Sleeper but pulling over 5,300 adds in the last 48 hours. Indianapolis has a history of manufacturing goal-line carries for their lead backs, and if McGowan earns that role in camp, he becomes a high-volume TD vulture with real PPR value as a receiver out of the backfield. This is the sneaky name on Clay's list that could massively outperform his current ADP.

9. Michael Wilson, WR, Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals have three unresolved contracts this offseason — Wilson, Jacoby Brissett, and Paris Johnson Jr. — and the financial uncertainty creates real target-share ambiguity. But here's our contrarian read: because Wilson's extension hasn't been resolved, the Cardinals front office knows they need to showcase his value to finalize a deal. That means targets. That means red-zone looks. Teams negotiating with receivers don't bench them — they feed them. Wilson in 2026 could be the accidental TD beneficiary of his own contract standoff.

10. Jam Miller, RB, New England Patriots

New England's backfield has been a fantasy wasteland for years, but Miller is quietly generating adds (2,664 in 48 hours, rank #999) ahead of camp. The Patriots' new offensive coordinator is one of the 10 new play-callers entering 2026 with a lot at stake. Fresh coordinators almost always establish the run game first to protect young quarterbacks — and Cade Klubnik (QB, NYJ) heading to the Jets means New England's QB situation is still being sorted. Miller as a short-yardage TD option in a run-heavy early-season scheme is absolutely a thing.

11. Jeff Caldwell, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs manufacture touchdown receivers the way other franchises manufacture draft picks. Caldwell is at rank #999 but pulling over 5,200 adds, which tells us the fantasy community is starting to wake up. Patrick Mahomes targets slot receivers in the red zone at one of the highest rates in the NFL, and Cyrus Allen (WR, KC) is also in the mix — meaning Kansas City's passing game depth is genuinely being evaluated right now. Caldwell in a full camp role could be the Travis Kelce TD-vulture replacement nobody saw coming.

The 2026 season is shaping up to be one of the most volatile TD landscapes we've seen in years — new coordinators, unresolved contracts, rookie defenders creating shootouts, and young quarterbacks being handed the keys. The players above aren't all sure things, but each one represents a real structural argument for elevated TD volume. Check back with us as training camp opens in late July — the depth charts will crystallize fast, and the window to roster these names at basement prices closes the second the first padded practice hits.